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Setec Astronomy
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NWS

#1

Post: # 19464Unread post Setec Astronomy
Sat May 09, 2020 5:48 am

I went to sleep last night with this forecast:

"Low around 36...winds could gust as high as 26mph". I was worried enough about that (and the following night low 35 with even higher winds) since I just finished planting out everything the day before (we are now more than a week past our 50% last frost date).

So I woke up this morning not to 36...but to 30.6. I've just been scrambling around throwing buckets and pots and anything I could find over plants and moving containers that I could inside. I don't know how much I lost...but I'm guessing a bunch :(

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bower
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Re: NWS

#2

Post: # 19468Unread post bower
Sat May 09, 2020 6:49 am

I've been watching this forecast for days as it turned up in my news feed warning about snow/frost in Ontario. Then last night I saw it on our local news, a really big intrusion of arctic air down into the States as well...
We are not in it here, but it's controlling our weather anyway, basically a huge spinning low is trapped over us, keeping it colder than normal, and being very generous with showers and rain every couple days.
Meanwhile we are not far ahead enough to have any much to lose... I hope all the coverings worked and the losses are not too bad for you folks!
AgCan Zone 5a/USDA zone 4
temperate marine climate
yearly precip 61 inches/1550 mm

Setec Astronomy
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Re: NWS

#3

Post: # 19469Unread post Setec Astronomy
Sat May 09, 2020 7:26 am

I just don't understand the inconsistency we get with the NWS...just a couple of weeks ago, we had big FROST WARNINGS in the pictorial forecast, so I covered everything...and there was no frost. This time, even now, there is nothing in the "hazardous weather statement" or pictorially, or in the projected temperatures, but there is a little item under "news headlines" that says "Freeze Warnings This Morning and Tonight", but you wouldn't even notice that.

I mean you have to be an intelligence analyst to pick apart that data...yet as I said a couple of weeks ago a casual look and you would see huge warnings...and who cares about a little frost? Just us gardeners...and it's even more important now than it was 2 weeks ago as more people are likely to have planted or turned on outside water (there is mention in the "news" story about freezing outdoor pipes as well as covering delicate plants...again, not than anyone read that because it's not in the forecast, or the "hazardous weather statement" associated with the forecast).

While I'm ranting about the NWS...we would get this with the snowstorms...5 days before the storm they would say 14" of snow...then as we would get closer to the date, the amount of snow would get lower and lower...and then all of a sudden the day before it would be back to 14"...and I would just shake my head...how can you have a better forecast 5 days before than you have 2 days before?

Not that I don't understand weather is complicated and it changes.

wxcrawler
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Re: NWS

#4

Post: # 19490Unread post wxcrawler
Sat May 09, 2020 10:14 am

As a Meteorologist with the NWS, all I can say is it is MUCH more difficult to get a forecast exactly right than you might think it should be. If you take a step back from an individual event, it's actually amazing that we forecast as accurately as we do, overall. The reason we have forecast error is we are trying to model a chaotic system with imperfect models. There are a lot of models out there, some better than others, that are all based on "perfect" physics. Well the atmosphere is not a perfect system. It is chaotic, and impossible to model exactly. I don't know specifically about your temperature forecast bust, but I can guess. WInds will typically keep temperatures from bottoming-out overnight. My guess is, the winds died down faster than what the models forecast. So that's why the forecast was higher than what happened. But what do we forecast when all of the models say the winds will stay up all night? Now I don't know if that is the reason, but it wouldn't surprise me. In the other example with the frost warning that didn't happen, it may have been the exact opposite. The models may have shown calm winds, but the winds stayed up enough to keep it slightly warmer. Or maybe a few clouds moved in unexpectedly that kept it slightly warmer. It could have been something as minor as the humidity at 5000 feet was higher than modeled. All of those, and many, many more variables have to be forecast right to get the temperatures exactly right.

NWS forecasters are generally some of the best in the business. They want to get the forecast right, and try to use all of the tools available to make the best forecast. But we are not future-tellers, and have some limitations. Like I said, our models are imperfect, some times more than other times. I bet that forecaster is very unhappy with his/her forecast bust. They will look at what went wrong, and try to get better for next time.

I didn't take this post as you bagging on the NWS. I just wanted to try to explain how difficult it can be to forecast accurately.

Lee

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Re: NWS

#5

Post: # 19493Unread post Setec Astronomy
Sat May 09, 2020 10:49 am

Thanks, wxcrawler, despite my anxiety this morning, I'm not trying to oversimplify the process, in fact I remember reading an article by I believe Nate Silver, talking about how incredibly complex the modeling is and also saying how impressive the accuracy actually is...he also touched on the politics of forecasting...about how (at that time) there were no percentages lower than 20%, because if someone was going to go on a day trip and it said only 10% chance of rain, and then it rained, think how peeved they'd be.

And, despite my snow rant, for the most part in the last few years the NWS has been better about qualitative rather than quantitative snow forecasts, seemingly trying to split the difference between public safety information and...I dunno what I'm trying to say, the public needs to be informed about risk without generating panic, either.

There was a frost warning for north and west of me, I dunno, I fell asleep on the couch last night and maybe they changed the forecast late last night, but as I said, even this morning, instead of the big colored pictorials, there was just that note which I never would have seen if I hadn't been looking for SOMETHING about frost...of course that was after the fact. I guess I need to be more cognizant that weather in the next county could move to my county...of course the way the USDA zones are here, those counties north and west of me may be in a different zone (so I told myself last night).

One of the plants I brought inside looks like it may be a goner...I'm afraid to look at the ones that stayed outside under buckets.

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heirl00m
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Re: NWS

#6

Post: # 19494Unread post heirl00m
Sat May 09, 2020 10:54 am

[mention]wxcrawler[/mention] Amen, friend. Forecasting is trying to solve the most difficult mathematical equation, where the millions of inputs are not knowable and constantly changing. The fact we can even forecast at our current abilities is somewhat remarkable in its own right.
There's no good reason for parsley. None.

rxkeith
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Re: NWS

#7

Post: # 19497Unread post rxkeith
Sat May 09, 2020 11:27 am

forecasting the weather especially during the winter here in the U.P. can be difficult with the lake effect snow system.
one day, light snow turned out to be 8 inches. that aint light even by our standards. snow amounts vary depending on terrain, which
way the wind is blowing, local weather events. john dee, a private forecaster usually does a pretty good job at tracking weather systems.
the only thing that can be planted out in the garden this time of year is onions. we had snow showers yesterday, still having several nights
where the temps are below freezing. get the garden ready for planting, and wait for june, and hopefully warmer weather sticks around for
longer than a few days.




keith

Setec Astronomy
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Re: NWS

#8

Post: # 19498Unread post Setec Astronomy
Sat May 09, 2020 11:30 am

I usually plant out at the end of April/beginning of May, as that's our (50%) last frost date. This year, because it was so warm in Feb. and March, I thought I'd cheat it by a week, and I did with some plants, others as late as a few days ago. I believe our 90% last frost date is about May 15...we'll see if I learn a lesson this year and decide to wait until then in future...or at least only plant before then in planters I can easily move inside.

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ddsack
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Re: NWS

#9

Post: # 19499Unread post ddsack
Sat May 09, 2020 12:56 pm

Remember that it's just a range of a couple of degrees that go from not freezing to freezing, or frost warnings to freeze warnings. Expecting exactitude in a small spot location is not realistic. People may have little micro climate areas of their own that may skew the larger area forecast up or down a few degrees, whether due to city buildings, or natural features like low hills and valleys, forests and bodies of water. I have a 12 mile drive into town, and I may see up to a two to five degree temperature vacillation on my car outside thermometer in just that short distance.

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worth1
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Re: NWS

#10

Post: # 19509Unread post worth1
Sat May 09, 2020 3:52 pm

Its like throwing a stick in the river and trying to guess which side of the bank it will end up on.
Worth
25 miles southeast of Waterloo Texas.

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edweather
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Re: NWS

#11

Post: # 20771Unread post edweather
Tue May 26, 2020 10:53 am

Meteorology today is all models models models. There are very few good forecasters around. You are better off just looking out the window. There is a 50% chance the weather tomorrow will be just like today's.
Southeast GA, USDA 9a, HZ9, Sunset Z28

wxcrawler
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Re: NWS

#12

Post: # 20773Unread post wxcrawler
Tue May 26, 2020 11:49 am

Sorry edweather, but you are very wrong. There are a ton of good forecasters. You just may not have many in your area. Weather forecasting is much better than it was 20 years ago. You want to know why? Models. So before you go bashing that, be careful. Without good weather modeling, we'd have many more fatalities and injures from hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe thunderstorms.

Lee

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bower
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Re: NWS

#13

Post: # 20791Unread post bower
Tue May 26, 2020 5:59 pm

I really enjoy the Norwegian weather site at yr.no. Their models generate pretty accurate wind speed and direction changes as well as precip on a rather fine scale, for any place in the world. Between them and EnvCan I can usually get a good idea what is on the way.
Recently read that forecasters are making do during covid, with much less wind speed data than usual, because they normally get that from commercial flights. There's a new satellite called Aeolus which is filling some gaps, but of course they had hoped to use Aeolus to make the forecast even better.
AgCan Zone 5a/USDA zone 4
temperate marine climate
yearly precip 61 inches/1550 mm

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MrBig46
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Re: NWS

#14

Post: # 20803Unread post MrBig46
Wed May 27, 2020 1:05 am

I also follow yr.no. Their long-term forecasts (for week) seem accurate to me. There are only forecasts on our website for three days in advance.
Vladimír

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karstopography
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Re: NWS

#15

Post: # 20807Unread post karstopography
Wed May 27, 2020 4:23 am

Heat islands are interesting. I once lived in about the dead center of the Houston heat Island. I grew and produced tomatoes outdoors all winter, I generally picked up an extra 5-10 degrees F over rural areas nearby, but sometimes it was more than that.

Even towns of 30,000 have significant heat islands. It is very easy to see the effect with the personal weather stations linked to Weather Underground. This time of year, my tomatoes benefit from being away from the urban areas that store all that heat from the day in concrete and steel and then release the heat throughout the night.

But not all rural areas are the same. Where I live, there are big areas of large scale agriculture and big forests. Those giant, open fields tend to soak up a lot of heat during the day and then they stay warmer overnight. I live in an area surrounded by a large block of forest. We tend to cool off at night faster this time of year, but then get a couple of degrees of frost protection in the winter as many of the trees are evergreen.

The weather people on the local networks are mostly giving numbers for the urban areas, although they touch upon the surrounding areas. As far as my location relates to the Houston forecast, I know that I should subtract 5-10 degrees from the Houston number.

Too many people will say “well, the weatherman didn’t say we were supposed to get a frost”, but then they aren’t stuck in the middle of an artificial landscape of countless tons of asphalt, concrete and masonary soaking up ridiculous amounts of heat from the sun. How can all that man modified landscape not have an impact on temperature?
Zone 9b, located in the Columbia bottomlands, annual rainfall 46”

Setec Astronomy
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Re: NWS

#16

Post: # 20814Unread post Setec Astronomy
Wed May 27, 2020 7:10 am

In the end I only lost one plant, my Minnesota Midget Melon, which I had bought as a seedling. I was able to get some seeds and I direct-sowed, if only the chipmunk would stop digging them up! I think I have him foiled because I put some mesh over the planter to keep him from digging and started some seeds inside, also.

My other plants (mostly tomatoes, but a few ground cherries and one pepper) had varying degrees of damage but survived, hopefully their output isn't affected as suggested in another thread.

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edweather
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Re: NWS

#17

Post: # 21242Unread post edweather
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:01 am

@wxcrawler, you are correct about the hurricanes, tornadoes and severe weather to some extent. I'm a meteorologist, and that doesn't make me right by any means. I've been following the weather for more than 50 years, and down here in the lower latitudes without a jet stream nearby for 8 months out of the year, the daily forecast changes every 3 hours when the latest model runs comes out. Frankly it's a joke. The the models for last few hurricanes that went by here were so far off it's ridiculous. Radar and satellite technology make for pretty pictures, but it's amazing that actual forecasting isn't much better 3-5 days out than it was 50 years ago. My opinion, and I have the right to be wrong just like everyone else. Hey I'm a weatherman, I get paid to be wrong. Try forecasting the snow bands on the Tug Hill in Northern NY :-)
Southeast GA, USDA 9a, HZ9, Sunset Z28

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worth1
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Re: NWS

#18

Post: # 21260Unread post worth1
Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:37 pm

I remember the good old days when they taught weather maps in school and the weather man used a marker on a board showing the different fronts low pressure and high pressure areas.
A person could do a lot worse than to get a barometer for the house and pay attention to wind direction.

Out in West Texas a horn frog will bury itself in the sand before a storm.
I have seen it several times.
Worth
25 miles southeast of Waterloo Texas.

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You might as well be arguing with a cat.

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