How Much Stock Do You Put into Extended Forecasts?

[karstopography]

Accuweather has a total of three nights between now and the end of February below 45 degrees and just barely. Most days are 70s/50s types, which is around 10 degrees over expected long term norms. Soil temperatures as of 5 minutes ago is low/mid sixties. Tomato sets have been outside for about a week hardening up in shade and filtered light and are of a size that is ready to plant. Am I crazy to consider putting most or almost all of them in within a week, essentially 1 month ahead of schedule or should I completely not trust the Accuweather extended forecast?

[TomHillbilly]

karstopography-- I've no idea, and wouldn't dream of telling you even if I did. Because I have a bad track record on making similar calls.
I will make you a challenge-- of sorts. I'll state that if you set half those out. And shelter the other half each night in a warmer room. Unless your plants are root bound. Those you hold back and shelter, will grow much bigger than the grounded plants in a 10 day period. I'm talking about as much as a foot difference in a 2 week period.

[TXTravis]

[mention]karstopography[/mention] I'm facing a similar dilemma. I potted up my seedlings yesterday and ended up with about 70 plants. I only need 20 this year, and will give away the rest. In any case, I no longer have room for them inside, so they're sleeping out unless there's a freeze. Still not bold enough to put them in the ground for a couple more weeks, but I'm tempted to try a couple. In my case, since I have backups, I might as well give it a try...

[bower]

I've noticed a number of people in the last few years, who had unusual warm weather and decided to plant out early... but ended in disaster, because the unseasonable warm weather was accompanied by a few hard frosts. Saw a discussion about this just the other day. Mind they are not in Texas so ymmv, but I'd venture to say in many cases, the apparent earliness of spring weather doesn't pay off.

[Vanman]

We planted earlier than usual last year and had to cover tomatoes and peppers once due to a later than usual frost.

[Cole_Robbie]

I think past about 2 weeks, they are mostly using historical averages. One factor I always watch as the forecast changes is the direction it is moving. If the forecast temp has been moving downward, the actual temp on that date is more likely to be lower than forecast, and vice versa on the upside.

[Amateurinawe]

We have a saying here, not sure if it is just my family and friends but it is the go nuts period of bank holidays in the uk. The easter bank holiday is a great time as you get good friday and easter monday so everyone goes to the garden centre, buys tons of plants and put then straight into the garden. We call it "buy and die". Along comes the last frost and then they get to do it all again at the may bank holiday....garden centres make a mint..

[karstopography]

I’ve got some more time to play with. The tomato sets can I’m thinking go at least 2 more weeks in the containers they are in now without adverse effects. Reifels were I get most of my garden stuff had tomatoes sets out this morning. Not a ton for them, but several of the better know hybrids like Celebrity and Big Beef.

Meanwhile, I’m adding on a dedicated 5’ x 10’ raised bed for potatoes. Got all my seed potatoes now and ordered the corners, they come tomorrow. Getting the rough western Cedar planks also on Saturday. Another 50 square feet will be nice to work with, eases some fears of crowding and what to put where.

[karstopography]

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[mention]TomHillbilly[/mention]
It’s warmer outside than it is in the house. I think the concrete and bricks of the house are chilled or something. I don’t know, with this forecast maybe I’ll bring them in Wednesday night or just not sweat the one night. Looks pretty benign for a tomato plant to me.

[bower]

One thing I learned from Fusion Power that really works, is to plant them out when you have three days of good weather in a row. That way they don't have transplant stress and cold stress at the same time. When three days have passed, they're settled in enough to put up with a little inclemency. This proved to be the best advice ever for me, planting in cold spring. If I had your forecast I would go ahead and plant on Saturday and plan to cover with a cloth on the couple of nights at 45 F.

[TomHillbilly]

When I lived in zone 6 at 2400 feet-- it was wrote in stone, that no frost risked plants could be set out before the 15th of May. This date was was carved in stone by my ancestry dating back before the civil war. Some time in the late 90's when my mother was still living. I set out a week early, because I was a rebel. My mother was raised on a large produce farm. Her mind was staring to diminish in those days. I called her every other day, and had to have a subject to talk about. So I told her what I had done. It frosted so hard on the 13th I lost even the plants I had covered. Mom preached at me for days over that. LOL.. This has nothing to do with karstopography's decision. His topic just brought back memories.
In 2003 a year before she died. She still believed that the almanac was better at predicting the weather, than the news stations. Now I know she was wrong. But just to exercise her mind. I would call her each night and tell her the long range forecast compared to her cherished almanac. We would keep score on who was ahead during the early planting seasons. It was a game I created to exercise her mind. Beating ALL odds-- somehow by a complete miracle, the dreamed up stuff created in the almanac beat my long rage forecasters. My mother died and left this world thinking the almanac was gospel. And I failed to disprove the myth. She also believed you had to plant by the signs. Sometimes I would lie to her about the times I stuck things in the ground. LOL

[worth1]

Not much.....

[rxkeith]

here, we don't put too much stock in long range forecasts.

if you plant earlier than normal for your area, be prepared to protect your
plants. one guy here in the U.P. yopper posted photos of his tomatoes in
the garden protected by wall o waters, and snow on the ground. his plants
survived. just watch the weather. only way i could plant a month early would
be with a heated green house. i have seen snow in may a few times.


keith

[bower]

Being in a short season climate, I spent some years trying to push the season limits by starting early. I was trialing a lot of OP's at the time, and I will say that tolerance for the early planting varies depending on the variety. Only a small subgroup of tomato OP's tolerated the cold well enough to take advantage of the early days. Some of the more sensitive vars did more poorly and fruited extra late, possibly because of that shock early season. Others simply won't set or grow fruit until night temps are consistently 60F or above. I did get an earlier crop by starting in mid April instead of mid May, especially if we were lucky enough to have a sunny spring. But then we had as many or more brutally cold wet springs which really punished the plants. It was a lot of extra work to protect and pamper them for what they produced early. A handful of extra early fruits for all that work, it did not really advance the date of the main crop.

[edweather]

So far, our winter forecast is a bust. Called for very warm and very dry. Has been cold and wet. The weatherman got it wrong, shocker.

[Rockoe10]

My area is pretty blah and predictable, so the forecast is nearly spot on. That said, its not 100% and if I try to cheat a little, even a couple degree difference can cause issues and kill off my crop.

I planted early last year, but i also kept a few extras inside, just in case. And sure enough, i needed them.

[SpookyShoe]

Accuweather has a total of three nights between now and the end of February below 45 degrees and just barely. Most days are 70s/50s types, which is around 10 degrees over expected long term norms. Soil temperatures as of 5 minutes ago is low/mid sixties. Tomato sets have been outside for about a week hardening up in shade and filtered light and are of a size that is ready to plant. Am I crazy to consider putting most or almost all of them in within a week, essentially 1 month ahead of schedule or should I completely not trust the Accuweather extended forecast?

Yes, you are crazy. And I don't live that far away from you.

[SpookyShoe]

Accuweather has a total of three nights between now and the end of February below 45 degrees and just barely. Most days are 70s/50s types, which is around 10 degrees over expected long term norms. Soil temperatures as of 5 minutes ago is low/mid sixties. Tomato sets have been outside for about a week hardening up in shade and filtered light and are of a size that is ready to plant. Am I crazy to consider putting most or almost all of them in within a week, essentially 1 month ahead of schedule or should I completely not trust the Accuweather extended forecast?

Yes, you are crazy. And I don't live that far away from you.

[karstopography]

Well, I am truly crazy because I planted 23 tomato sets into the beds today. It was fun. Rolling the dice.

[JRinPA]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

I found that last year. I found it pretty accurate for last spring and summer. Haven't looked since. It is just trends, not really a forecast.